The 2007 Bay Area Regional Rail Plan, explained

Why it existed

In 2004 Bay Area voters passed Regional Measure 2, a $1 toll increase on the seven state-owned bridges. The measure also required MTC to adopt a Regional Rail Plan: one network for the whole region, including how high-speed rail would reach it.

Work started in late 2005 with public meetings. A steering committee of Caltrans, Amtrak, the Capitol Corridor, ACE, SMART, the Port of Oakland, Union Pacific, BNSF and the nine county agencies met about every quarter. From 2005 to 2007, this address, bayarearailplan.info, was the project's official website.

What it said

Purpose: a long-range vision for an interconnected Bay Area passenger rail network, the first comprehensive look in about 50 years.
Ring the Bay with fast, frequent, integrated rail connecting San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose.
BART and Caltrain are the backbone; reinvesting in them (BART 'Core Capacity') is a top regional priority.
BART's outward expansion is 'nearly complete': after San Jose and logical terminals at Livermore, Santa Clara and East Contra Costa, no more BART-technology extensions; BART becomes a high-frequency metro.
Add a regional express rail network on mostly existing (often freight-shared) tracks for longer trips.
Expand rail infrastructure for both passenger and freight growth (freight demand forecast to grow over 350% in 50 years).
High-speed rail should accelerate regional rail; make the Peninsula (Caltrain) corridor 'high-speed ready' first.
Pair rail investment with transit-oriented land use at stations.
Move toward a 'federation' of rail operators; charter no new rail operators in the near term.
Act as successor/advocacy platform beyond MTC Resolution 3434 (the region's ~$13.5B 2001 transit expansion program).
Long term (2030–2050): a second transbay crossing — a new BART tube and SF subway paired with a standard-gauge rail tunnel.

What it would cost

Estimated total capital investment for the plan: about $45 billion (2006 dollars). The later chapters give a slightly different figure: recommended 'hybrid' network: $35B capital + $8B BART Core Capacity = $43B; Resolution 3434 share $10B; ~$1.4B/year operating (Alt 1: $1.6B/yr; Alt 2: $1.3B/yr). 2006 dollars.

High-speed rail into the Bay Area was priced separately: Altamont and Pacheco options each about $16–18 billion (2006), about $1B more to accommodate regional services; Altamont + Pacheco combined about $21 billion.

The timetable it set

Near term, to 2015

BART Warm Springs extension
BART Oakland Airport Connector
eBART service Pittsburg–Byron (vehicle technology TBD)
SMART Larkspur–Cloverdale start-up (track, signal, stations)
Capitol Corridor: third main track Oakland–Richmond, Roseville/Auburn service, Hercules and Fairfield/Vacaville stations, Port of Oakland Outer Harbor intermodal terminal
East Bay: purchase UP Oakland Subdivision; Union City intermodal station
BART Core Capacity improvements (transbay)
Peninsula: grade separations and 3rd/4th main tracks
South Counties: second main track San Jose–Gilroy; improvements for service to Salinas
Dumbarton: bridge, track and signal work to start Redwood City–Union City service
ACE: track/signal improvements Niles–Tracy; I-680 regional bus
North Bay: corridor preservation plan
Central Valley: right-of-way plan; passenger-only line Stockton–Sacramento
Grade separation studies; 'Quiet Zones'

Intermediate, 2015–2030

BART Silicon Valley extension incl. San Jose airport connector
People-mover to a new West Oakland Capitol Corridor station
BART fourth track / Oakland subway lower-level platforms MacArthur–Oakland Wye
BART Livermore extension + ACE intermodal (Isabel/Stanley or Greenville/I-580)
BART infill stations
Caltrain electrification + lightweight EMUs SF–Tamien and Transbay Transit Center (column placement uncertain in extraction; both are Resolution 3434 baseline items for 2030)
Capitol Corridor: fourth main track Oakland–Richmond, wBART-type service on UPRR, third track Benicia–Auburn, Dixon station
BART 'Metro' service improvements
Tri-Valley: restore former SP line Niles–Pleasanton; passenger-only tracks Pleasanton–Livermore
Napa/Solano and SMART–Capitol Corridor east-west services (consider as appropriate)
Construct high-priority grade separations

Long term, 2030–2050

New BART transbay tube and SF subway line (Oakland–Alameda–SF)
New standard-gauge rail transbay crossing
Dumbarton passenger-only tracks Newark–Niles for lightweight trains
eBART extension to Tracy with ACE intermodal (column placement uncertain)
ACE: second main track Livermore–Lathrop; extend service Tracy–Patterson
South Counties: Santa Cruz–Monterey service; Hollister shuttle
SMART: possible extension to San Quentin ferry terminal
Central Valley passenger-only line Lathrop–Modesto–Merced
Grade separations needed for high-speed operation

From Table 8.2-1 of the final report. The PDF's table columns are hard to read, so a few items may sit one column off; those are flagged in our notes.

How it went

Most of the near-term list arrived late or not at all. See the scorecard for each project, with sources.

2004 · Regional Measure 2 passes and requires the plan.
Late 2005 · Public outreach meetings begin.
2006 · Network alternatives are drawn up and tested.
2007-09-26 · MTC adopts the final plan.
2014–2020 · Oakland Airport Connector, BART Warm Springs, eBART, SMART, Salesforce Transit Center and BART Berryessa open.
2024-09-21 · Caltrain runs fully electric between San Francisco and San José.
2025–2026 · A second BART tube is dropped; BART Phase II and The Portal still wait for federal grant agreements.

Read the original

Final Report, September 2007 — cover, contents and Executive Summary (pp. 1–27) (es.mtc.ca.gov, PDF)
Chapters 1–5 (es.mtc.ca.gov, PDF)
Chapter 7 — Alternatives definition and evaluation (es.mtc.ca.gov, PDF)
Chapter 8 — Study outcomes, incl. Table 8.2-1 phasing plan (48 MB) (mtc.ca.gov, PDF)
Chapters 9–11 — Support strategies, implementation, next steps (mtc.ca.gov, PDF)
MTC's rail page as archived in October 2007 (adoption date)
MTC's current Regional Rail Plan page